How Climate Change Is Threatening Your Morning Coffee
How Climate Change Is Threatening Your Morning Coffee
Coffee prices hit a 47-year high in late 2024. The immediate cause: Brazil's worst drought in 70 years combined with poor harvests in Vietnam. The underlying cause: climate change is making these events more frequent and more severe.
Coffee prices hit a 47-year high in late 2024. The immediate cause: Brazil's worst drought in 70 years combined with poor harvests in Vietnam. The underlying cause: climate change is making these events more frequent and more severe.
This isn't a distant future scenario. It's happening now. And the projections for the next 25 years are sobering.
Here's what climate change means for coffee — and what the industry is doing to adapt.

The Temperature Problem
Arabica coffee is picky about temperature. It grows optimally at mean temperatures of 18-23°C (64-73°F), with tolerance up to about 24°C. Beyond that threshold, yields and quality decline rapidly.
What Happens When It Gets Too Hot
According to research published in Nature Scientific Reports, a 1°C increase in average air temperature causes approximately a 14% decrease in coffee production. Studies across East Africa and Central America report yield reductions of 30-50% under 2-3°C warming scenarios.
Higher temperatures also:
- Accelerate cherry ripening, shortening development time
- Produce smaller beans with lower cup quality
- Increase susceptibility to pests and diseases
- Reduce the lifespan of coffee plants
The 2050 Projections
The numbers are stark. Research published in PLOS ONE confirms that 50% of land currently suitable for Arabica production will no longer be suitable by 2050.
Regional impacts vary but are universally significant:
By 2050, climate projections show devastating regional impacts: Brazil, India, and Central America could see up to 80% of current areas become unsuitable for coffee, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Kenya face one-third declines in suitability, Central America overall may experience 38-89% reductions in growing area, and Brazil's key regions of Minas Gerais and São Paulo could see suitable land drop from 70-75% to just 20-25%.
Coffee-suitable elevations are projected to shift upward by more than 300 meters by mid-century. In hot, wet regions like Southern Mexico, coffee will need to migrate nearly 500 meters higher.
Coffee Leaf Rust: Climate's Amplifier
Rising temperatures don't just stress plants directly — they enable diseases to spread where they couldn't before.
The Most Destructive Coffee Disease
Coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix) causes losses of $1-2 billion annually worldwide. According to the IAEA, it's the most destructive coffee disease globally.
How Climate Change Helps the Fungus
Changing rainfall patterns and rising temperatures shorten the time it takes for infected plants to become infectious. More critically, the disease has spread to mid and highland coffee-growing areas that were previously too cool for the fungus.
Before 2011, coffee leaf rust wasn't problematic above 1,000 meters. The post-2011 epidemic changed that — infestations of equal intensity now occur at higher altitudes than ever recorded.
The Central American Outbreak
The consequences have been devastating:
- More than 70% of Guatemalan coffee crops infected
- 100,000 jobs lost in Guatemala alone
- 15% drop in national coffee output
- More than half of the region's coffee farming land affected
The wave that started in 2011 quickly spread to elevations that had been rust-free for decades.
Water Stress and Drought
Drought is now a primary constraint on global coffee production.
Recent Impacts
The past two years illustrate the severity:
- Brazil (2024): Worst drought in 70 years reduced yields by up to 12%
- Vietnam (2023/24): 20% production drop; exports fell 10% for second consecutive year
- Indonesia (2023/24): Production declined 16.5% year-on-year
What Drought Does to Coffee
Prolonged drought stress causes:
- Stomatal closure and oxidative stress
- Severely reduced photosynthesis
- Stunted growth and yield reduction
- Bean quality deterioration
- Heightened susceptibility to pests and diseases
When coffee plants experience water stress during critical development phases, the damage compounds across multiple seasons.
Country Impacts: What's At Stake
Brazil
The world's top producer (one-third of global supply) faces escalating challenges:
- After four years of severe climatic impacts, plants haven't recovered
- Average productivity dropped 1.9% from 2023
- 2025/26 Arabica production expected to decrease 6.4%
Ethiopia (Birthplace of Coffee)
The stakes in Ethiopia are existential:
- The Kafa Biosphere Reserve contains thousands of genetic variants of wild Arabica — a vital seed bank
- 60% of 124 wild coffee species are threatened with extinction
- 15 million Ethiopians depend on coffee for their livelihoods
- Climate change is causing disease proliferation and shifting suitable growing areas
Central America
The region has lost more than half of planted coffee area in recent outbreaks:
- At least 350,000 people lost jobs
- Climate effects contribute to migration from Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador
- Over half of current coffee area faces decline by 2050

What the Industry Is Doing
Climate-Resistant Varieties
F1 Hybrids: World Coffee Research is developing new varieties with higher yields, wider climate adaptability, and disease/drought resilience. Early trials showed 22-47% higher yields without losses in cup quality.
Available varieties include Centroamericano, Mundo Maya, Starmaya, and Milenio in Latin America.
Coffea stenophylla: This West African species can tolerate mean annual temperatures up to 6-7°C higher than Arabica while producing comparable cup quality. Researchers are exploring crossbreeding to introduce stenophylla genes into Arabica.
Elevation Shifts
Farmers are moving uphill as lower elevations become unsuitable. The minimum altitude for viable production is projected to rise from approximately 2,000 feet to 3,300 feet.
Challenges include:
- Limited available land at higher elevations
- Infrastructure and transportation barriers
- Competition with existing land uses
- Economic barriers for smallholder farmers
Agroforestry and Shade-Grown Systems
Shade trees buffer coffee plants against temperature extremes — reducing ambient temperatures by up to 4°C. According to research in Frontiers, shade-grown systems are more productive and profitable than monocultures while providing climate resilience.
Medium shade development (up to 60% cover) achieves the highest productivity.
Why Robusta Isn't the Simple Answer
Some suggested switching to Robusta, which was thought to tolerate higher temperatures. But recent research found Robusta behaves "a lot more like Arabica than previously thought" — its optimal temperature is actually 20.5°C, with yields dropping 14% per degree of warming above that.
What This Means for Coffee Prices
Record Highs
- World coffee prices increased 38.8% in 2024 compared to the previous year
- November 2024: Prices hit a 47-year high
- December 2024: Arabica 58% above year-ago levels; Robusta up 70%
- U.S. ground roast coffee reached $8.41 per pound in July — a record
The Structural Problem
Global demand currently exceeds global production. The gap is projected to widen as:
- Climate impacts reduce suitable growing areas
- Consumption continues to increase (66% of American adults drink coffee daily — a 20-year high)
- Extreme weather events become more frequent
What Consumers Can Do
Support Sustainable Practices
Shade-grown and organic coffee supports farming systems that are more climate-resilient. These farms sequester more carbon, preserve biodiversity, and can better withstand temperature extremes.
Buy Quality Over Quantity
Specialty coffee typically comes from higher elevations where climate impacts are less severe (for now). Supporting farmers who invest in quality creates economic incentives for sustainable practices.
Understand the Price Reality
The era of cheap coffee may be ending. Prices that reflect the true cost of sustainable production — including adapting to climate change — support the farmers and systems needed for coffee's long-term future.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is climate change affecting coffee?
Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and increased pest pressure are reducing yields and quality. Research shows each 1°C temperature increase causes approximately 14% yield reduction. By 2050, 50% of current Arabica-suitable land may become unsuitable for cultivation.
Will there be a coffee shortage?
Supply constraints are already occurring — Brazil's 2024 drought was the worst in 70 years. Long-term projections show significant reductions in suitable growing land. Whether this becomes a true "shortage" depends on adaptation efforts, new varieties, and changes in growing regions.
Why are coffee prices so high?
Climate-driven supply disruptions combined with growing global demand. Brazil's drought, Vietnam's production decline, and reduced harvests in Indonesia all contributed to 2024's record prices. These events are becoming more frequent as climate change intensifies.
What is the future of coffee production?
The industry is adapting through climate-resistant varieties (F1 hybrids), elevation shifts to cooler areas, and agroforestry systems that buffer temperature extremes. Wild coffee species like Coffea stenophylla offer genetic resources for future breeding. The geography of coffee will change, but production will likely continue — at higher cost.
How can I help as a coffee consumer?
Support shade-grown and sustainably certified coffees, which are more climate-resilient. Buy from roasters who pay fair prices to farmers investing in adaptation. Accept that sustainable coffee costs more — that price supports the farming practices needed for long-term production.

The Bottom Line
Climate change isn't a future threat to coffee — it's a present reality. The 2024 price spikes, Brazil's drought, and the spread of coffee leaf rust to higher elevations are all symptoms of a changing climate.
The coffee you drink in 2030 or 2040 may come from different elevations, different varieties, and different farming systems than today. Adaptation is possible, but it requires investment from the entire supply chain — including consumers willing to pay sustainable prices.
At Ember, we source from farmers who are adapting: investing in shade systems, diversifying varieties, and building resilience into their operations. The coffee is excellent, and the farms are positioned for a climate-changed future.