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How Climate Change Is Threatening Your Morning Coffee

How Climate Change Is Threatening Your Morning Coffee

Coffee prices hit a 47-year high in late 2024. The immediate cause: Brazil's worst drought in 70 years combined with poor harvests in Vietnam. The underlying cause: climate change is making these events more frequent and more severe.

A woman holding a cup aligned to the morning sun

Coffee prices hit a 47-year high in late 2024. The immediate cause: Brazil's worst drought in 70 years combined with poor harvests in Vietnam. The underlying cause: climate change is making these events more frequent and more severe.

This isn't a distant future scenario. It's happening now. And the projections for the next 25 years are sobering.

Here's what climate change means for coffee — and what the industry is doing to adapt.

A coffee farmer harvesting coffee

The Temperature Problem

Arabica coffee is picky about temperature. It grows optimally at mean temperatures of 18-23°C (64-73°F), with tolerance up to about 24°C. Beyond that threshold, yields and quality decline rapidly.

What Happens When It Gets Too Hot

According to research published in Nature Scientific Reports, a 1°C increase in average air temperature causes approximately a 14% decrease in coffee production. Studies across East Africa and Central America report yield reductions of 30-50% under 2-3°C warming scenarios.

Higher temperatures also:

  • Accelerate cherry ripening, shortening development time
  • Produce smaller beans with lower cup quality
  • Increase susceptibility to pests and diseases
  • Reduce the lifespan of coffee plants

The 2050 Projections

The numbers are stark. Research published in PLOS ONE confirms that 50% of land currently suitable for Arabica production will no longer be suitable by 2050.

Regional impacts vary but are universally significant:

By 2050, climate projections show devastating regional impacts: Brazil, India, and Central America could see up to 80% of current areas become unsuitable for coffee, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Kenya face one-third declines in suitability, Central America overall may experience 38-89% reductions in growing area, and Brazil's key regions of Minas Gerais and São Paulo could see suitable land drop from 70-75% to just 20-25%.

Coffee-suitable elevations are projected to shift upward by more than 300 meters by mid-century. In hot, wet regions like Southern Mexico, coffee will need to migrate nearly 500 meters higher.

Coffee Leaf Rust: Climate's Amplifier

Rising temperatures don't just stress plants directly — they enable diseases to spread where they couldn't before.

The Most Destructive Coffee Disease

Coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix) causes losses of $1-2 billion annually worldwide. According to the IAEA, it's the most destructive coffee disease globally.

How Climate Change Helps the Fungus

Changing rainfall patterns and rising temperatures shorten the time it takes for infected plants to become infectious. More critically, the disease has spread to mid and highland coffee-growing areas that were previously too cool for the fungus.

Before 2011, coffee leaf rust wasn't problematic above 1,000 meters. The post-2011 epidemic changed that — infestations of equal intensity now occur at higher altitudes than ever recorded.

The Central American Outbreak

The consequences have been devastating:

  • More than 70% of Guatemalan coffee crops infected
  • 100,000 jobs lost in Guatemala alone
  • 15% drop in national coffee output
  • More than half of the region's coffee farming land affected

The wave that started in 2011 quickly spread to elevations that had been rust-free for decades.

Water Stress and Drought

Drought is now a primary constraint on global coffee production.

Recent Impacts

The past two years illustrate the severity:

  • Brazil (2024): Worst drought in 70 years reduced yields by up to 12%
  • Vietnam (2023/24): 20% production drop; exports fell 10% for second consecutive year
  • Indonesia (2023/24): Production declined 16.5% year-on-year

What Drought Does to Coffee

Prolonged drought stress causes:

  • Stomatal closure and oxidative stress
  • Severely reduced photosynthesis
  • Stunted growth and yield reduction
  • Bean quality deterioration
  • Heightened susceptibility to pests and diseases

When coffee plants experience water stress during critical development phases, the damage compounds across multiple seasons.

Country Impacts: What's At Stake

Brazil

The world's top producer (one-third of global supply) faces escalating challenges:

  • After four years of severe climatic impacts, plants haven't recovered
  • Average productivity dropped 1.9% from 2023
  • 2025/26 Arabica production expected to decrease 6.4%

Ethiopia (Birthplace of Coffee)

The stakes in Ethiopia are existential:

  • The Kafa Biosphere Reserve contains thousands of genetic variants of wild Arabica — a vital seed bank
  • 60% of 124 wild coffee species are threatened with extinction
  • 15 million Ethiopians depend on coffee for their livelihoods
  • Climate change is causing disease proliferation and shifting suitable growing areas

Central America

The region has lost more than half of planted coffee area in recent outbreaks:

  • At least 350,000 people lost jobs
  • Climate effects contribute to migration from Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador
  • Over half of current coffee area faces decline by 2050
An coffee farmer spreading sun-dried coffee

What the Industry Is Doing

Climate-Resistant Varieties

F1 Hybrids: World Coffee Research is developing new varieties with higher yields, wider climate adaptability, and disease/drought resilience. Early trials showed 22-47% higher yields without losses in cup quality.

Available varieties include Centroamericano, Mundo Maya, Starmaya, and Milenio in Latin America.

Coffea stenophylla: This West African species can tolerate mean annual temperatures up to 6-7°C higher than Arabica while producing comparable cup quality. Researchers are exploring crossbreeding to introduce stenophylla genes into Arabica.

Elevation Shifts

Farmers are moving uphill as lower elevations become unsuitable. The minimum altitude for viable production is projected to rise from approximately 2,000 feet to 3,300 feet.

Challenges include:

  • Limited available land at higher elevations
  • Infrastructure and transportation barriers
  • Competition with existing land uses
  • Economic barriers for smallholder farmers

Agroforestry and Shade-Grown Systems

Shade trees buffer coffee plants against temperature extremes — reducing ambient temperatures by up to 4°C. According to research in Frontiers, shade-grown systems are more productive and profitable than monocultures while providing climate resilience.

Medium shade development (up to 60% cover) achieves the highest productivity.

Why Robusta Isn't the Simple Answer

Some suggested switching to Robusta, which was thought to tolerate higher temperatures. But recent research found Robusta behaves "a lot more like Arabica than previously thought" — its optimal temperature is actually 20.5°C, with yields dropping 14% per degree of warming above that.

What This Means for Coffee Prices

Record Highs

  • World coffee prices increased 38.8% in 2024 compared to the previous year
  • November 2024: Prices hit a 47-year high
  • December 2024: Arabica 58% above year-ago levels; Robusta up 70%
  • U.S. ground roast coffee reached $8.41 per pound in July — a record

The Structural Problem

Global demand currently exceeds global production. The gap is projected to widen as:

  • Climate impacts reduce suitable growing areas
  • Consumption continues to increase (66% of American adults drink coffee daily — a 20-year high)
  • Extreme weather events become more frequent

What Consumers Can Do

Support Sustainable Practices

Shade-grown and organic coffee supports farming systems that are more climate-resilient. These farms sequester more carbon, preserve biodiversity, and can better withstand temperature extremes.

Buy Quality Over Quantity

Specialty coffee typically comes from higher elevations where climate impacts are less severe (for now). Supporting farmers who invest in quality creates economic incentives for sustainable practices.

Understand the Price Reality

The era of cheap coffee may be ending. Prices that reflect the true cost of sustainable production — including adapting to climate change — support the farmers and systems needed for coffee's long-term future.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is climate change affecting coffee?

Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and increased pest pressure are reducing yields and quality. Research shows each 1°C temperature increase causes approximately 14% yield reduction. By 2050, 50% of current Arabica-suitable land may become unsuitable for cultivation.

Will there be a coffee shortage?

Supply constraints are already occurring — Brazil's 2024 drought was the worst in 70 years. Long-term projections show significant reductions in suitable growing land. Whether this becomes a true "shortage" depends on adaptation efforts, new varieties, and changes in growing regions.

Why are coffee prices so high?

Climate-driven supply disruptions combined with growing global demand. Brazil's drought, Vietnam's production decline, and reduced harvests in Indonesia all contributed to 2024's record prices. These events are becoming more frequent as climate change intensifies.

What is the future of coffee production?

The industry is adapting through climate-resistant varieties (F1 hybrids), elevation shifts to cooler areas, and agroforestry systems that buffer temperature extremes. Wild coffee species like Coffea stenophylla offer genetic resources for future breeding. The geography of coffee will change, but production will likely continue — at higher cost.

How can I help as a coffee consumer?

Support shade-grown and sustainably certified coffees, which are more climate-resilient. Buy from roasters who pay fair prices to farmers investing in adaptation. Accept that sustainable coffee costs more — that price supports the farming practices needed for long-term production.

Ember Coffee El Jefe espresso

The Bottom Line

Climate change isn't a future threat to coffee — it's a present reality. The 2024 price spikes, Brazil's drought, and the spread of coffee leaf rust to higher elevations are all symptoms of a changing climate.

The coffee you drink in 2030 or 2040 may come from different elevations, different varieties, and different farming systems than today. Adaptation is possible, but it requires investment from the entire supply chain — including consumers willing to pay sustainable prices.

At Ember, we source from farmers who are adapting: investing in shade systems, diversifying varieties, and building resilience into their operations. The coffee is excellent, and the farms are positioned for a climate-changed future.

Shop our air-roasted coffees →

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Farmers watched helplessly as their carefully tended plants withered under the scorching sun or succumbed to the icy grip of frost. The result? A staggering 40% reduction in yields in some areas. Unseasonal Deluges: Meanwhile, in Vietnam, the second-largest coffee producer globally, unseasonal rains have wreaked havoc. Coffee cherries, which should have been ripening under gentle sunshine, instead rotted on the branches, leading to significant crop losses and quality issues. Geopolitical Jitters: As if weather woes weren't enough, the coffee market found itself caught in a political crossfire. In early 2025, rumors swirled about potential U.S. tariffs on Colombian coffee. Though never implemented, the mere whisper of trade restrictions sent prices soaring by 15% in just a week, highlighting the fragility of global coffee trade relationships. Supply Chain Snarls: The journey of coffee beans from farm to cup has become increasingly complex and costly. Ongoing logistical challenges, exacerbated by fuel price hikes and labor shortages, have inflated transportation costs. The price of shipping a container of coffee has tripled since 2023, adding another layer of pressure to already strained margins. Market Speculation: As news of crop failures and potential shortages spread like wildfire, market speculators pounced. Their actions drove coffee futures to unprecedented heights, with the C-market price for Arabica coffee reaching a jaw-dropping $3.84 per pound in February 2025 – a 47-year high. The Ripple Effect Reaches Minnesota Here at Ember Coffee, nestled in the heart of Minnesota's vibrant coffee scene, we've felt the tremors of these global shifts. The impact on our operations and community has been profound: Margin Squeeze: Green coffee now accounts for a staggering 60-70% of our production costs, up from 40-50% just two years ago. This dramatic increase, coupled with rising energy and labor costs, has put immense pressure on our margins. Sourcing Struggles: Maintaining the consistent flavor profiles our customers love has become increasingly challenging. We've had to be more flexible in our sourcing, sometimes substituting origins or adjusting roast profiles to compensate for changes in bean characteristics. Pricing Predicaments: As a community-focused roaster, we're acutely aware of the impact price increases have on our customers. We've been forced to make difficult decisions about when and how to adjust our pricing to reflect the new market realities while remaining accessible to our loyal patrons. Crafting a Sustainable Future, One Bean at a Time Despite these challenges, we at Ember Coffee believe that this crisis presents an opportunity for positive change. Like the phoenix rising from the ashes, we're determined to emerge stronger and more sustainable. Here's how we're adapting: Nurturing Direct Trade Relationships: We're doubling down on our direct trade partnerships, offering long-term contracts at stable prices to our farmer partners. This approach not only secures our access to high-quality beans but also provides farmers with the financial security to invest in sustainable practices and climate adaptation measures. Diversifying Our Offerings: To offset rising costs and keep things exciting for our customers, we're expanding our product range. Limited edition micro-lots, experimental processing methods, and unique Minnesota-inspired coffee blends are just a few of the innovations we're exploring. Empowering Through Education: We believe that an informed customer is a loyal customer. We've launched a series on Roasting 101 on our YouTube site, and we're planning a Coffee 101 cupping sessions at our Big Lake roastery. These programs help our community understand the complexities of coffee production and pricing, fostering a deeper appreciation for the craft behind each cup. The Power of the Minnesota Coffee Lover As we navigate these challenges, the support and understanding of our customers are more crucial than ever. Here's how Minnesota coffee enthusiasts can contribute to a more sustainable coffee ecosystem: Embrace Transparency: We encourage our customers to ask questions about pricing, sourcing, and roasting practices. Understanding the true cost of producing exceptional coffee can help justify price adjustments when necessary. Value Quality Over Quantity: By choosing to invest in higher-quality, ethically sourced coffee, consumers can help support fair wages for farmers and sustainable agricultural practices. Support Local Roasters: Minnesota's local roasters, like Ember Coffee, are deeply invested in our communities. By choosing local over national chains, consumers help keep money circulating in the local economy and support businesses that prioritize sustainability and ethical sourcing. Experiment with Brewing Methods: Different brewing methods can extract unique flavors from coffee beans. By exploring various brewing techniques, consumers can maximize the value and enjoyment they get from each bag of coffee. Envisioning a Brighter Future for Minnesota Coffee As we look to the horizon, we see challenges, but also immense potential. Our vision for the future of specialty coffee in Minnesota is one of resilience, innovation, and community: A More Resilient Supply Chain: We're exploring collaborations with other Minnesota roasters to potentially secure better prices and more stable supply chains through collective purchasing power. Increased Local Collaboration: We envision a future where coffee is increasingly integrated into Minnesota's local food scene. Imagine coffee-infused craft beers, chocolate truffles featuring our single-origin roasts, or seasonal menus at local restaurants built around coffee pairings. Innovation in Sustainability: We're investing in research on more sustainable packaging options and exploring ways to upcycle coffee chaff and other by-products of the roasting process. Our goal is to minimize our environmental impact while maximizing the value we create. A More Educated Consumer Base: Through continued education efforts, we aim to cultivate a community of coffee enthusiasts who appreciate the craftsmanship behind every cup and understand the global impact of their purchasing decisions. Conclusion: United in Our Love for Great Coffee As the aroma of freshly roasted coffee continues to fill our roastery, we're reminded of why we do what we do. The current coffee price crisis is undoubtedly one of the most significant challenges our industry has faced in decades. However, at Ember Coffee, we believe that by staying true to our values of quality, sustainability, and community, we can not only weather this storm but emerge stronger on the other side. To our loyal customers and coffee lovers across Minnesota: your support during these turbulent times means more than you know. Every bag of Ember Coffee you purchase, every latte you enjoy in our cafe, is a vote for a more sustainable and equitable coffee future. As we navigate these uncharted waters, we remain committed to transparency, quality, and the relentless pursuit of the perfect cup. Together, we can ensure that Minnesota remains a beacon of excellence in the world of specialty coffee, no matter what challenges lie ahead. Thank you for being part of our journey, for your understanding during these difficult times, and for your unwavering love of great coffee. Here's to many more shared moments over a steaming cup of Minnesota's finest brew. Warmly,The Ember Coffee Team
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